Refined Tastes

Russian Oil Deliveries to Pyongyang Breach the Million Barrel Mark

James Byrne, Joseph Byrne, Alessio Armenzoni
22 November 2024

As North Koreans troops are reportedly committed to the battle in Kursk, over six thousand miles away in Russia’s far east, Pyongyang’s tankers are quietly shuttling oil between Russian and North Korean ports in violation of UN sanctions, originally imposed by the Security Council following the country’s 2016 nuclear tests.

Since the first North Korean tanker visited Russia’s Far Eastern port of Vostochny in March 2024, Pyongyang’s oiler fleet have made over 40 visits to this port, likely loading over a million barrels of Russian oil products in the process, a new analysis by the London-based Open Source Centre (OSC) and BBC News can reveal.

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Geollect, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Geollect, Open Source Centre.}

The ongoing deliveries, many of which are being made by UN-designated tankers, come as 10,000 North Korean troops have reportedly entered the war in support of the Kremlin’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

These shipments also underscore the growing rapprochement between Russia and North Korea, a relationship that dates back to the very foundation of the DPRK when Kim Il Sung and his guerillas were trained by the Soviet army and assigned to the 88th Separate Rifle Brigade in the country’s far east. Ten years later, with Soviet backing, Kim invaded South Korea in June 1950, marking the beginning of a three-year conflagration that would decimate the peninsula and end without a formal peace treaty.

_{Source: Planet Labs, Open Source Centre.}

Supplier of First Resort

Today, despite Russia historically supporting UN sanctions against the DPRK designed to throttle the country’s nuclear weapons programme, Moscow has been importing millions of North Korean munitions and has now become the country’s oil supplier of first resort.

Dozens of high-resolution satellite images, AIS data and imagery released by maritime patrol missions tasked with monitoring North Korea’s UN-sanctions busting activities show North Korean tankers repeatedly loading at an oil terminal at the Russian port of Vostochny. In May 2024, the Toplivo Bunkering Company (TBK), which operates this terminal, was sanctioned by the UK and a number of other countries.

_{Source: Planet Labs, Airbus Defence and Space, Maxar Technologies, Open Source Centre.}

^{Source: Planet Labs, Airbus Defence and Space, Maxar Technologies, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Planet Labs, Airbus Defence and Space, Maxar Technologies, Open Source Centre.}

Following these visits, North Korean tankers have been repeatedly imaged delivering to North Korean oil terminals and ports where petroleum is offloaded for delivery around the country.

North Korea’s dilapidated oil refinery infrastructure means that Pyongyang is entirely reliant on imports of refined products, such as diesel and gasoline, both to power its domestic transport infrastructure and its armed forces, which remain one of the largest in the world.

_{Source: Planet Labs, Airbus Defence and Technology, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Planet Labs, Airbus Defence and Technology, Open Source Centre.}

UN-Designated Tankers

While Russia vetoed a UN resolution that sought to renew the mandate of the UN Panel of Experts - the official body tasked with monitoring North Korea’s compliance with UNSC Resolutions - on 28 March 2024, the full suite of UN sanctions against Pyongyang remains in force.

_{A meeting of the UN Security Council. Source: US State Department.}

_{A meeting of the UN Security Council. Source: US State Department.}

These UN resolutions not only cap the amount of refined petroleum North Korea is allowed to import at 500,000 barrels a year, but also require UN member states to detain designated vessels when in port.

Despite originally passing these sanctions at the UN Security Council, analysis by the OSC and the BBC shows that Russia continues to allow these vessels to enter port to load oil.

The case of theYu Son

On 3 October 2024, the North Korean flagged oil tanker Yu Son sailed out of North Korean waters and into the Yellow Sea.

_{The YU SON sailing in the Yellow Sea in October 2024, leaving North Korea for Russia. Source: Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON.}

_{The YU SON sailing in the Yellow Sea in October 2024, leaving North Korea for Russia. Source: Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON.}

Days later, imaged sailing through the Yellow Sea by a patrol aircraft which is tasked with monitoring UN sanctions, the Yu Son appeared to be high in the water and not carrying any cargo. Aircraft regularly patrol the area to monitor the UN sanctions placed on North Korea.

The Yu Son was next observed by satellite imagery on 17 October, over a thousand kilometres away, arriving in the Russian port of Vostochny.

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Geollect, Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Geollect, Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

In May, the Yu Son conducted a similar voyage. After loading in Vostochny on the 18th of the month, the vessel set sail for North Korea. This time, a Canadian aircraft deployed on Operation NEON captured an image of the vessel as it returned to Nampo. In this image, the vessel is heavily laden, indicating it had loaded oil. In early June, the Open Source Centre spotted the vessel at the Nampo oil terminal, likely offloading its cargo.

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Planet Labs, Geollect, Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Planet Labs, Geollect, Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Canadian Armed Forces/Operation NEON, Open Source Centre.}

Barrel Breach

The OSC calculated volumes from tanker capacities and satellite imagery. Several images taken since March 2024, show that the vessels visiting Russia appear heavily laden after visiting the port of Vostochny. Had these tankers been fully laden, they would have delivered over a million barrels since March 2024, or double the UN-mandated oil cap.

These figures are also based on observed visits and do not count possible visits that were not identified because of cloud cover or lack of satellite coverage. As a result, this assessment potentially represents a conservative number.

Of the 43 pickups by DPRK vessels in 2024, over half of these voyages were made by UN designated vessels.

Source: Open Source Centre.

Over the past two years, collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang has strengthened dramatically following Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

TIMELINE OF DPRK - RUSSIA RELATIONS

September - December 2022
In September 2022, the U.S. government declassified intelligence claiming that Russia was seeking to purchase North Koreans munitions and weapons for its war in Ukraine. By November, the first shipments had reportedly been made to Russia's Wagner Group.

_{Rail traffic at Tumengang Station at the border between Russia and North Korea on 26 January 2023. Source: Airbus Defence and Space.}

_{Rail traffic at Tumengang Station at the border between Russia and North Korea on 26 January 2023. Source: Airbus Defence and Space.}

July 2023
Russian defense minister Shoigu visits the DPRK with other high-ranking officials, marking the first foreign representative visit to the DPRK since the pandemic.

August 2023
North Korea begins providing munitions to Russia at scale, using Russian cargo vessels to shuttle thousands of containers from eastern ports in North Korea to Russian military facilities and ports.

_{The sanctioned Russian vessel Angara offloading containers in Russia in August 2024 Source: Airbus Defence and Space.}

_{The sanctioned Russian vessel Angara offloading containers in Russia in August 2024 Source: Airbus Defence and Space.}

September 2023
The North Korea - Russia summit saw Kim Jong Un visit Russia for 5 days and visit military facilities in Russia’s far east.

December 2023
Russian forces launch the first North Korean ballistic missile into Ukraine. Ukrainian officials note that by May 2024, at least 50 North Korean missiles had been fired into Ukraine by Russia.

March 2024
On 7 March, DPRK flagged tankers begin loading oil in Russian ports for the first time since UN Resolutions capped DPRK oil imports in 2017. Several of these were UN sanctioned tankers.

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Open Source Centre.}

_{Source: Airbus Defence and Space, Open Source Centre.}

On 28 March, Russia vetoes the renewal of the UNSC 1718 Committee Panel of Experts mandate, which investigates DPRK violations of Security Council resolutions.

June 2024
Putin visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years and signed a landmark mutual defense treaty.

October - November 2024
IIn October, intelligence sources began reporting that DPRK troops and military personnel had been sent to Russia. Images published on social media appear to show North Korean Koksan self-propelled artillery systems being transported on Russian trains.

_{DPRK artillery system Koksan reportedly seen being transported by rail in Russia Source: @Archer83Able on X.}

_{DPRK artillery system Koksan reportedly seen being transported by rail in Russia Source: @Archer83Able on X.}

Meanwhile, throughout the year, oil and ammunition deliveries have continued to flow between North Korea and Russia.

_{The sanctioned Russian vessel Angara loading materiel in North Korea - October 2024. Source: Maxar Technologies, Open Source Centre.}

_{The sanctioned Russian vessel Angara loading materiel in North Korea - October 2024. Source: Maxar Technologies, Open Source Centre.}

_{Putin on his official visit in North Korea. Source: KCNA.}

_{Putin on his official visit in North Korea. Source: KCNA.}

_{North Korean troops parading through Pyongyang. Source: KCNA.}

_{North Korean troops parading through Pyongyang. Source: KCNA.}

Cold War Redux

As World War Two drew to its eventual conclusion, the Soviet Armed Forces reached Pyongyang after a successful amphibious landing at the Korean port of Chongjin. Soon after, the peninsula was to be partitioned along the 38th parallel, while Kim Il Sung was to take his place as the Chairman of the North Korean Bureau of the Communist Party of Korea.

Today, after signing a mutual defence treaty with Moscow, Kim’s grandson has begun dispatching North Korean munitions and troops from the port of Chongjin to help prosecute a war of aggression in clear violation of the UN Charter.

Oil deliveries may be one small strand to this rekindled friendship, but as Churchill once warned at the dawn of the Cold War, the Allies could not afford to ‘work on narrow margins, offering temptations to a trial of strength’. Ukraine now faces both Russian and North Korean troops arrayed against it, while Russian oil will increasingly power North Korea’s economy and armed forces at home.

In 1950, a coalition of more than 20 countries under the UN-banner fought alongside their South Korean counterparts to repel the Soviet-backed North Korean invasion in what has often been referred to as the Forgotten War. Recent events show that, far from being forgotten, North Korea’s war has now reached European soil.